What will be the average number of citations for papers published in Nature Climate Change in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

What percentage of AI research papers will be published as preprints in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

How many clinical trials will be registered on ClinicalTrials.gov in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

What will be the average impact factor of journals publishing climate change research in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

How many papers will be retracted from top scientific journals in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

What percentage of published psychology studies will be successfully replicated in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

How many new AI research labs will be established by major tech companies in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

What will be the average number of authors per paper in Nature in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

How many new scientific journals will be launched in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

What percentage of published medical research will be open access in 2025?

Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 5 AM UTC

Will >50% of surveyed AI researchers agree that large language models will achieve human-level reasoning by 2035?

Academic Consensus Resolves: Tue, Dec 31, 2024 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: AI Research Community Survey

Will OpenAI achieve AGI through the transformer architecture by 2030?

Academic Consensus Resolves: Mon, Jan 1, 2030 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: AI Research Community Survey

Will the next paper on blind and low vision mathematics accepted at ASSETS receive more than 10 citations in its first 3 months?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Mon, Mar 1, 2025 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Google Scholar Citation Tracker

Will a paper published in a conference/journal with impact factor above 5.0 conclude that climate change will improve sleep quality for a population above 10 million by 2026?

Research Validation Resolves: Tue, Dec 15, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Journal Impact Factor Database

Will a randomized controlled trial with >1000 participants show that meditation apps improve academic performance by >10%?

Study Effectiveness Resolves: Sun, Jun 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: ClinicalTrials.gov

Will a meta-analysis of >50 studies show that AI-assisted diagnosis improves medical accuracy by >15% by 2026?

Research Validation Resolves: Tue, Dec 15, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Cochrane Database

Will >75% of surveyed climate scientists agree that current models underestimate sea level rise by 2100?

Academic Consensus Resolves: Tue, Dec 31, 2024 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: IPCC Survey

Will a study with >5000 participants show that social media usage reduces attention span by >20%?

Study Effectiveness Resolves: Sun, Jun 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Nature Human Behavior

Will >60% of surveyed economists predict a global recession in 2025?

Academic Consensus Resolves: Tue, Dec 31, 2024 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Economic Survey

Will a peer-reviewed study in a top climate journal find that current carbon capture technologies can scale to remove >1Gt CO2/year by 2030?

Research Validation Resolves: Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Nature Climate Change

Will a systematic review of >100 studies conclude that climate adaptation measures have reduced economic losses by >20% in vulnerable regions?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Science

Will a large-scale field trial (>10,000 participants) demonstrate that behavioral interventions can reduce household carbon emissions by >15%?

Study Effectiveness Resolves: Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: PNAS

Will a meta-analysis of climate models show that current projections underestimate extreme weather events by >30%?

Academic Consensus Resolves: Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Global Methane Pledge: 30% Reduction by Sept 2025?

Research Validation Resolves: Mon, Sep 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 52%
LATEST YES 75%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: UNEP Progress Report

US Offshore Drilling Ban by Dec 2025?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Tue, Dec 30, 2025 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: U.S. Congress Bills Database

Will hydrogen fuel cell vehicles surpass 1M global sales by June 2025?

Study Effectiveness Resolves: Sun, Jun 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 50%
LATEST YES 50%
LATEST NO 50%
Source: UNEP Progress Report

Will Arctic summer sea ice extent drop below 3M km² in September 2025?

Research Validation Resolves: Mon, Sep 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: NSIDC Satellite Data

Will the COP30 agreement include binding targets for fossil fuel phaseouts?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Mon, Dec 15, 2025 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: COP30 Final Text

Will India's renewable energy capacity surpass 200 GW by June 2025?

Study Effectiveness Resolves: Sun, Jun 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Indian Ministry of Power

Will Amazon achieve between 90 to 100% renewable energy for operations by June 2025?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Sun, Jun 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Amazon Sustainability Report

Will ExxonMobil reduce Scope 3 emissions by 15% by Dec 2025?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Mon, Dec 1, 2025 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: ExxonMobil ESG Report

Will 2025 surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record?

Research Validation Resolves: Fri, Jan 30, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: NASA/NOAA Annual Report

Will California Carbon Allowance prices average >$40/ton in 2025?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Thu, Jan 1, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: ICE Futures Data

What % of the US population believes average global temperature will exceed 2°C by 2040?

Micro Poll Resolves: Tue, Dec 31, 2024 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Pew Research Center

Will OpenAI achieve AGI through the transformer architecture by 2030?

Academic Consensus Resolves: Mon, Jan 1, 2030 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: AI Research Community Survey

Will the next paper on blind and low vision mathematics accepted at ASSETS receive more than 10 citations in its first 3 months?

Impact Assessment Resolves: Mon, Mar 1, 2025 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Google Scholar Citation Tracker

Will a paper published in a conference/journal with impact factor above 5.0 conclude that climate change will improve sleep quality for a population above 10 million by 2026?

Research Validation Resolves: Tue, Dec 15, 2026 at 12 AM EST
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: Journal Impact Factor Database

Will a randomized controlled trial with >1000 participants show that meditation apps improve academic performance by >10%?

Study Effectiveness Resolves: Sun, Jun 1, 2025 at 12 AM EDT
OVERALL PROBABILITY 55%
LATEST YES 82%
LATEST NO 28%
Source: ClinicalTrials.gov